Ericsson B ERIC B
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Full analysis: 26 Jan 2026
Latest news check: 15 Jul 2026
General analysis — not personal advice.
SELL
7/10
Confidence
Keep only a core position if you have a long horizon, but consider trimming an additional 10–20% into strength/bounces until there are clearer signs of order stabilization and that pricing/redesign actions can offset component costs. For new/add positions: wait for confirmation in Q3 (Oct 15) or clearer guidance on margin impact and Enterprise turnaround/divestment actions.
Following the Q2 sell-off and the warning on AI-driven component cost inflation, near-term downside risk has increased: the market is now pricing lower growth and potential margin pressure in H2 2026/2027. Buybacks may provide a floor but are not reliable protection if gross margins/orders weaken; the CEO transition also adds volatility risk into Q3 and the handover.
Market sentiment
3/10
↓
Trend: Declining
Sentiment has clearly deteriorated after the earnings reaction: despite the EBITA beat, weaker revenue/organic growth and more explicit cost risks dominate, increasing uncertainty around margins and valuation.
Risk assessment
7/10
Dilution:
Low
Jurisdiction:
Low
Execution:
Medium
Cash flow:
24 mo
Recent changes
- Adjusted EBITA beat expectations but revenue fell about 6% YoY and missed consensus. The company warned of AI-driven component cost inflation that could pressure margins in H2 2026 and into 2027.
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Sector:
Telekommunikationsutrustning
Type:
Tech
Next report
15 Oct 2026
Q3
Catalysts
1 Oct 2026
CEO transition: Per Narvinger takes over
High
15 Oct 2026
Q3 2026 earnings
High
Unknown
CEO transition: Per Narvinger to take over during 2026
High
Horizon:
No analysis for this horizon yet.
Signal rationale (informational)
Following the Q2 sell-off and the warning on AI-driven component cost inflation, near-term downside risk has increased: the market is now pricing lower growth and potential margin pressure in H2 2026/2027. Buybacks may provide a floor but are not reliable protection if gross margins/orders weaken; the CEO transition also adds volatility risk into Q3 and the handover.
Recent news
- Ericsson released Q2 2026 on July 14: adjusted EBITA beat expectations, but revenue declined (~-6% YoY) and missed consensus, with continued negative organic development. The company warned about rising component costs linked to AI demand (e.g., memory/inputs), which could pressure margins in H2 2026 and into 2027. The share sold off sharply on the report day (around -12–13%) as investors focused on growth concerns and future margin pressure. The share buyback program (up to SEK 15bn) continues and provides some support, but the market focus has shifted toward volumes/growth and cost inflation. A CEO transition has been communicated: Börje Ekholm to step down and Per Narvinger to take over on Oct 1, 2026.
Price & valuation
Last close
SEK 96.20
1 week
-0.1 %
3 months
-18.5 %
12 months
+35.5 %
From 52w high
-24.5 %
From 52w low
+36.7 %
Exchange
Stockholm
Type
Technology
Sector
Telekommunikationsutrustning
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Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.