Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz KSPI
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Full analysis: 4 Aug 2026
Latest news check: 11 Aug 2026
General analysis — not personal advice.
HOLD
7/10
Confidence
Existing position may be maintained at current valuation pending the Q2 report.
Mixed financial outcomes with strong growth but unchanged profit and persistent high jurisdiction risk support the hold signal.
Market sentiment
7/10
→
Trend: Stable
Investors focus on strong e-commerce growth and AI adoption while noting margin pressure from Turkey and financing costs.
Price context
The stock closes at 94 USD near its 52-week high after moderate gains. The level reflects that the market already prices in growth and the dividend hike.
Risk assessment
7/10
Dilution:
Low
Strong cash generation without need for new equity
Jurisdiction:
High
Operations in Kazakhstan and Turkey with political and regulatory uncertainty
Execution:
Medium
Turkey acquisition integration still unproven at scale
Recent changes
- The report shows strong revenue growth driven by e-commerce and AI adoption, explaining the updated news context.
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Show all changes (2) — follow the company freeAbout the company
Kaspi.kz operates Kazakhstan's dominant super app with integrated payments, marketplace and consumer finance services. The company is expanding internationally through acquisitions in Turkey, including Hepsiburada and Rabobank A.Ş. Operations generate strong profitability and cash flow from the home market.
Sector:
Fintech, e-commerce and payments
Type:
Finance
Next report
15 Oct 2026
Q3
Catalysts
Q4 2026
Turkey fintech launch
High
Q4 2026
Q3 report
Medium
Horizon:
Bull case
Strong e-commerce growth, rapid AI adoption and proposed dividend increase support long-term potential.
Bear case
Margin pressure from Turkey integration, higher financing costs and jurisdiction risk limit profit growth.
Sensitivity analysis
| Factor | If it weakens | If it strengthens |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey integration | Failed integration of Hepsiburada and Rabobank → lower margins and higher costs than expected. | Successful integration → accelerated growth and profitability in Turkey. |
| Kazakhstan market dominance | Increased competition or regulation → lower growth rate in core operations. | Maintained dominance → continued high profitability and cash flow. |
We monitor these factors. Follow the company to get email when any of them hit.
Signal rationale (informational)
Mixed financial outcomes with strong growth but unchanged profit and persistent high jurisdiction risk support the hold signal.
Recent news
- Q2 2026 IFRS results were published on 10 August showing revenue of 2.32 billion USD and flat net income at 539 million USD. The AI assistant Kasper was launched and the Rabobank acquisition in Turkey was completed under the name Hepsi Bank. An 18 % dividend increase is proposed.
Key figures
Revenue
Q2 2026
USD 2.3B
EBITDA
Q2 2026
USD 0.8B
Net income
Q2 2026
USD 539M
Cash
Q1 2026
ZT 808B
Gross margin
Q1 2026
70.3%
Shares outstanding
Q1 2026
190M
EPS
Q2 2026
USD 2.84
Price & valuation
Last close
USD 94.00
Market Cap
USD 17.9B
1 week
+2.0 %
3 months
+6.8 %
12 months
-3.3 %
From 52w high
-3.8 %
From 52w low
+36.5 %
Exchange
NASDAQ
Type
Finance
Sector
Fintech, e-commerce and payments
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Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.