MilDef Group AB (publ) MILDEF
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Full analysis: 30 Jul 2026
General analysis — not personal advice.
HOLD
7/10
Confidence
Existing position can be maintained at current valuation with room for adjustment on temporary weakness.
Strong order backlog, recently won framework agreements and improved margins support the hold signal.
Market sentiment
8/10
↑
Trend: Improving
The market reacts positively to the large framework agreements and strong organic growth in Q2.
Price context
The price at SEK 218.5 sits near the 52-week high after gains over the past year, reflecting expectations of continued growth from the order backlog.
Risk assessment
4/10
Dilution:
Low
Positive cash flow and low net debt/EBITDA
Jurisdiction:
Low
Operations mainly in Sweden and NATO countries
Execution:
Medium
Large order backlog requires capacity expansion during 2027
About the company
MilDef develops and supplies rugged IT hardware, software and systems integration primarily to the defense and security sector. The company holds a strong position in European NATO markets with focus on rugged computers, network equipment and OneCIS solutions. Operations benefit from rising defense budgets and digitalization trends.
Sector:
Defense and rugged IT hardware
Type:
Industrial
Next report
22 Oct 2026
Q3
Catalysts
Q1 2027
Bundeswehr framework agreement
High
Q3 2027
NATO hardware order
High
Horizon:
Bull case
Strong organic growth, record order backlog and recently won multi-billion contracts create clear revenue visibility.
Bear case
Order intake showed volatility in Q2 and margins are expected to normalize from elevated levels.
Sensitivity analysis
| Factor | If it weakens | If it strengthens |
|---|---|---|
| Order backlog execution | Delivery delays → lower revenue realization and margin pressure during 2027. | Faster call-offs from framework agreements → higher revenue and stronger profitability earlier than expected. |
| Production capacity in Helsingborg | Delayed expansion → limited ability to fully handle the order backlog. | Early completion → increased delivery capacity and higher volume during 2027. |
We monitor these factors. Follow the company to get email when any of them hit.
Signal rationale (informational)
Strong order backlog, recently won framework agreements and improved margins support the hold signal.
Recent news
- The company signed a 7-year framework agreement with the German Bundeswehr via subsidiary Roda potentially worth EUR 527 million including a first call-off order of EUR 95.4 million. Additional framework agreements with FMV and a major NATO order were also signed during summer 2026.
Key figures
Revenue
Q2 2026
SEK 0.6B
Revenue TTM
TTM
SEK 2.7B
EBITDA
Q2 2026
SEK 99.7M
Cash
Q2 2026
SEK 196M
Total debt
Q2 2026
SEK 692M
Gross margin
Q2 2026
51.9%
Shares outstanding
Q2 2026
47.1M
Price & valuation
Last close
SEK 228
Market Cap
SEK 10.7B
1 week
+2.0 %
3 months
+46.3 %
12 months
+44.4 %
From 52w high
-1.3 %
From 52w low
+106.9 %
Exchange
Stockholm
Type
Industrials
Sector
Defense and rugged IT hardware
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Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.