NCC NCC B

Stockholm | Industrials | Construction and civil engineering

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Full analysis: 6 Apr 2026 Latest news check: 15 Jul 2026

General analysis — not personal advice.

HOLD 7/10

Confidence

Maintain the position; consider adding only if Q2 shows clear margin improvement and better cash flow. If further negative surprises emerge in Industry/Construction, risk reduction may become relevant.

Hold: the report confirms near-term earnings weakness and elevated seasonality/weather risk, but the backlog is growing and the balance sheet still looks manageable. Wait for Q2 to confirm margin recovery, cash flow improvement, and that the deliberate revenue decline (more selective project mix) supports profitability.

Market sentiment 6/10 ↑

Trend: Improving

Sentiment has improved from slightly negative to more neutral/positive as the large LKAB add-on order and additional projects support the order intake narrative, though the market still awaits Q2 for margin and cash-flow confirmation.

Risk assessment 7/10

Dilution: Low Strong balance sheet and dividend-paying cash flow

Jurisdiction: Low Operations mainly in stable Nordic countries

Execution: Medium Contracting projects can face overruns and disputes

Recent changes

▲ Sentiment rises from 4 to 6 and the trend shifts from declining to improving, supported by stronger order intake (incl. an LKAB order) while the market still awaits Q2 proof on margins and cash flow.

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About the company

NCC is a Nordic construction and infrastructure group operating in contracting, infrastructure projects, asphalt/aggregates (Industry), and commercial property development. It is a mature, cyclical business with typically low margins but a dividend-focused profile. Recent results were hit by large commercial property write-downs, while core Infrastructure/Industry performance remains comparatively strong.

Sector: Construction and civil engineering

Type: Industrial

Next report

3 Nov 2026

Catalysts

●

4 Nov 2026

Ex-date for second 2026 dividend tranche Low

◦

Unknown

New large infrastructure awards Medium

◦

Unknown

Buyback program may be initiated (authorization up to 10%) Medium

Horizon:

Bull case

The Q1 report could confirm stable EBIT and cash generation after write-downs. - A high dividend (ordinary + extra as proposed) may support the share price around the AGM. - Continued infrastructure/water contracts can strengthen the order book.

Bear case

Ongoing property portfolio uncertainty may drive renewed volatility. - A weak housing/construction market can pressure revenue and margins. - Any Q1 disappointment (orders/margins) can hit a cyclical stock hard.

Signal rationale (informational)

Recent news

Since 2026-06-19, NCC released its Q2/H1 report (14 July): order intake beat expectations, but revenue and H1 earnings were lower YoY, and operating cash flow deteriorated sharply (incl. working-capital/project effects and dispute-related costs). NCC Industry delivered a strong quarter with higher margins. The company also announced several new contracts (incl. bridge works in Vestland, Norway ~SEK 1.4bn and a school/sports hall in Lilla Edet ~SEK 340m) and sold the first part of the Hangar 5 Bromma property project for SEK 790m (positive cash flow, no P&L impact). The share price dropped on the report and, per market commentary, broke a short-term support level.

Price & valuation

Last close

SEK 174

2026-08-11

1 week

+0.1 %

3 months

-9.9 %

12 months

-11.1 %

From 52w high

-26.1 %

From 52w low

+3.3 %

Exchange

Stockholm

Type

Industrials

Sector

Construction and civil engineering