Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN
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Full analysis: 5 Aug 2026
Latest news check: 6 Jun 2026
General analysis — not personal advice.
HOLD
6/10
Confidence
Existing position can be maintained pending verified margin improvement from R2 volume.
Progress on R2 and strong cash balance are offset by ongoing losses and high execution risk, supporting the hold signal.
Market sentiment
7/10
↑
Trend: Improving
The market reacts positively to the R2 launch and improved delivery numbers, although analysts note that vehicle sales alone remain unprofitable.
Price context
At 15.36 USD the share sits 32 % below its 52-week high yet 32 % above its low, reflecting a balanced setup where the market weighs R2 success against near-term ramp costs.
Risk assessment
7/10
Dilution:
Low
Strong liquidity after equity raise and VW capital
Jurisdiction:
Low
Primary operations in the United States
Execution:
High
Repeated challenges with production ramp for new models
Cash flow:
24 mo
About the company
Rivian designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles including the R1 series and the new R2 platform. The company also delivers commercial vans and develops software and autonomous solutions. Operations are in a growth phase focused on volume ramp and margin improvement.
Sector:
EV Manufacturing
Type:
Producer
Next report
15 Nov 2026
Q3
Catalysts
Q4 2026
R2 volume ramp
High
Q1 2027
Lower-priced R2 versions
High
Horizon:
Bull case
R2 launch and raised delivery guidance create positive momentum with improving gross margins.
Bear case
Continued net losses and high R2 ramp-up costs pressure profitability.
Sensitivity analysis
| Factor | If it weakens | If it strengthens |
|---|---|---|
| R2 production ramp | Delayed volume increase → continued negative gross margin in the vehicle segment and higher cash burn. | Faster volume increase → lower cost per vehicle and positive gross margin already in 2027. |
| VW partnership milestones | Delayed tranche payments → increased need for external financing within 18 months. | Achieved milestones → additional 5 billion USD in capital extends runway and reduces dilution. |
We monitor these factors. Follow the company to get email when any of them hit.
Signal rationale (informational)
Progress on R2 and strong cash balance are offset by ongoing losses and high execution risk, supporting the hold signal.
Recent news
- Rivian raised 2026 delivery guidance to 65 000–70 000 vehicles. The company lowered its CapEx forecast by 250 million USD due to efficiency gains.
Key figures
Revenue
Q2 2026
USD 1.7B
Revenue TTM
TTM
USD 5.0B
EBITDA
Q2 2026
USD -379M
Net income
Q2 2026
USD -837M
Cash
Q2 2026
USD 5.3B
Total debt
Q1 2026
USD 4.4B
Gross margin
Q2 2026
11.0%
Shares outstanding
2026-04-21
1.3B
EPS
Q2 2026
USD -0.66
Price & valuation
Last close
USD 16.39
Market Cap
USD 20.7B
1 week
+5.3 %
3 months
+14.9 %
12 months
+36.9 %
From 52w high
-27.0 %
From 52w low
+37.4 %
Exchange
NASDAQ
Type
Producer
Sector
EV Manufacturing
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Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.