The Mosaic Company MOS
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Full analysis: 5 Aug 2026
Latest news check: 22 May 2026
General analysis — not personal advice.
HOLD
6/10
Confidence
Wait for clearer signs of margin improvement before considering any position increase.
Weak profitability, high debt and uncertainty around input costs support the HOLD signal.
Market sentiment
4/10
↓
Trend: Declining
The market is predominantly negative after the earnings miss and focuses on cost pressure and political scrutiny.
Price context
The stock trades near its 52-week low after a 36.4 % decline over twelve months, reflecting market concern over margin pressure rather than a stable profitability base.
Risk assessment
6/10
Dilution:
Low
No issuance announced and access to credit facilities
Jurisdiction:
Medium
Significant operations in Brazil with currency and competitive risk
Execution:
Medium
Dependent on external commodity prices the company cannot control
Recent changes
- Revenue of $3.0B beat expectations, but EPS of $0.05 missed and net loss was -$258M. The company withdrew full-year phosphate production guidance and cut capex by $250M.
About the company
The Mosaic Company is a leading producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers with operations in North America and Brazil. The company is in a mature phase and is heavily influenced by commodity prices and agricultural demand.
Sector:
Fertilizers
Type:
Producer
Next report
15 Nov 2026
Q3
Catalysts
Aug 2026
Q3 report
Medium
Nov 2026
Production adjustments
High
Horizon:
Bull case
Stabilized fertilizer prices and successful production curtailments could improve margins in coming quarters.
Bear case
High sulfur costs and continued losses in the Brazil segment further pressure profitability.
Sensitivity analysis
| Factor | If it weakens | If it strengthens |
|---|---|---|
| Sulfur price | Higher sulfur costs → continued production curtailments and lower gross margins. | Lower sulfur costs → restart of full capacity and improved margins. |
| Fertilizer prices (phosphate/potash) | Lower fertilizer prices → reduced demand and lower volumes across segments. | Higher fertilizer prices → strengthened profitability and improved cash flow. |
We monitor these factors. Follow the company to get email when any of them hit.
Signal rationale (informational)
Weak profitability, high debt and uncertainty around input costs support the HOLD signal.
Recent news
- Mosaic reported an unexpected net loss of 273 million USD for Q2 2026 on August 4, driven by surging sulfur costs and production curtailments. The stock fell in after-hours trading following the report.
Key figures
Revenue
Q2 2026
USD 2.8B
Revenue TTM
TTM
USD 12.4B
Net income
Q2 2026
USD -273M
Cash
Q2 2026
USD 288M
Total debt
Q2 2026
USD 5.6B
Price & valuation
Last close
USD 23.47
1 week
+0.3 %
3 months
+3.0 %
12 months
-24.8 %
From 52w high
-34.7 %
From 52w low
+18.4 %
Exchange
NYSE
Type
Producer
Sector
Fertilizers
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Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.