Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL
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Full analysis: 25 Jul 2026
Latest news check: 1 Jul 2026
General analysis — not personal advice.
HOLD
7/10
Confidence
Existing position may be maintained at current valuation
Stable profitability, strong balance sheet and reasonable valuation support the HOLD signal.
Market sentiment
7/10
→
Trend: Stable
The market reacts positively to order intake and margin commentary despite volume pressure.
Price context
The stock trades around 146.55 USD after a 19.1 % gain over 12 months, indicating consolidation without a clear catalyst before the next report.
Risk assessment
4/10
Dilution:
Low
Strong cash flow and ongoing buybacks
Jurisdiction:
Low
Operations solely in the USA
Execution:
Medium
Dependent on delivery volumes and market cycles
Recent changes
- A new Q2 report appeared: net income and revenue down YoY but stronger order values. Full-year guidance for deliveries and average delivery prices was raised.
About the company
Toll Brothers designs, builds and sells luxury homes across more than 60 markets in the United States. The company operates in the premium segment with complementary activities in financing and land development. Operations are profitable and in a mature phase with focus on margins and cash flow.
Sector:
Homebuilding
Type:
Industrial
Next report
20 Aug 2026
Q3
Catalysts
Aug 2026
Q3 report
High
Q4 2026
Fed rate decision
Medium
Horizon:
Bull case
Strong order intake and improved margin outlook support profitability.
Bear case
Declining delivery volumes and margin pressure from high interest rates limit growth.
Sensitivity analysis
| Factor | If it weakens | If it strengthens |
|---|---|---|
| Net signed contracts | Lower order intake → reduced backlog and lower future deliveries. | Higher order intake → increased backlog and stronger delivery volume. |
| Gross margin | Margin contraction → lower profitability and weaker cash flow. | Margin expansion → improved profitability and stronger cash flow. |
We monitor these factors. Follow the company to get email when any of them hit.
Signal rationale (informational)
Stable profitability, strong balance sheet and reasonable valuation support the HOLD signal.
Recent news
- The company launched several new luxury residential communities during July 2026. Institutional investors such as Dimensional Fund Advisors have increased their holdings.
Key figures
Revenue
FY 2026
USD 2.5B
Revenue TTM
TTM
USD 11.0B
EBITDA
TTM
USD 1.8B
Net income
FY 2026
USD 261M
Cash
2026-04-30
USD 1.1B
Total debt
2026-04-30
USD 2.9B
Gross margin
FY 2026
23.9%
Shares outstanding
2026-05-27
93.5M
EPS
FY 2026
USD 2.79
Price & valuation
Last close
USD 153
Market Cap
USD 14.3B
1 week
-1.3 %
3 months
+15.1 %
12 months
+19.2 %
From 52w high
-8.0 %
From 52w low
+23.2 %
Exchange
NYSE
Type
Industrials
Sector
Homebuilding
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Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.