Balder BALD B

Stockholm | Developer | Real estate (residential and commercial properties)

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Full analysis: 6 Apr 2026 Latest news check: 15 Jul 2026

General analysis — not personal advice.

HOLD 7/10

Confidence

Hold; consider adding after the Q1 report and AGM if Norion/leadership details are clarified.

Hold given profitable operations and potential tailwinds from stabilising rates, offset by high leverage and sensitivity to funding conditions. - Wait for clarity on the Norion distribution and leadership/strategy after the AGM and Q1 report. - Near-term risk/reward looks balanced.

Market sentiment 6/10 ↓

Trend: Declining

Sentiment has weakened slightly after the Q2 report: operational strength in revenues/NOI is offset by concerns about leverage/funding costs and weaker profit from property management.

Risk assessment 7/10

Dilution: Low Strong liquidity, no clear need for equity raise

Jurisdiction: Low Operations in stable Western European countries

Execution: Medium Leadership change and deals/projects must deliver

Recent changes

Q1 2026 came in slightly below expectations with rental income of SEK 3,460m, NOI of SEK 2,514m and profit from property management of SEK 1,450m. Profit from property management declined YoY, partly due to…

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About the company

Fastighets AB Balder is a Nordic real estate company that owns, manages, and develops residential and commercial properties across the Nordics as well as Germany and the UK. The company is profitable with high occupancy, but carries relatively high leverage and is interest-rate sensitive. Key focus areas include selective acquisitions, refinancing, and simplification via a proposed Norion Bank distribution.

Sector: Real estate (residential and commercial properties)

Type: Developer

Next report

23 Oct 2026

Catalysts

○

Q1 2027

New CEO start (expected 2026) Medium

◦

Unknown

Victoria project: 2027/2028 construction start window Medium

◦

Unknown

AMF crosses 5% ownership Low

Horizon:

Bull case

The Q1 report could confirm resilient earnings from property management and rental growth. - A Norion Bank distribution could unlock value and sharpen the pure-play real estate profile. - More stable/lower rates may improve sector sentiment.

Bear case

CEO/leadership transition uncertainty may weigh on the share price. - Rate and credit spread risk can pressure valuations and net financial items. - Weak technical setup could keep near-term pressure.

Signal rationale (informational)

Recent news

Since 2026-07-02: (1) The Q2/H1 interim report was released on 2026-07-14, showing rental income and NOI slightly above expectations but profit from property management below consensus; H1 management profit was down YoY partly due to the Norion effect. (2) The share dropped ~4–5% around the release and closed around SEK 52 the same day. (3) The previously communicated Victoria (Kungens Kurva) urban development project has received planning approval (legal force) and remains a long-term development option. Next key datapoint is the Q3 report on 2026-10-23.

Price & valuation

Last close

SEK 53.84

2026-08-11

1 week

-1.3 %

3 months

+1.0 %

12 months

-20.8 %

From 52w high

-27.9 %

From 52w low

+8.9 %

Exchange

Stockholm

Type

Developer

Sector

Real estate (residential and commercial properties)