Evolution AB (publ) EVO
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Full analysis: 6 Apr 2026
Latest news check: 18 Jul 2026
General analysis — not personal advice.
HOLD
7/10
Confidence
Maintain the current position; consider adding gradually if upcoming quarters show sustained organic growth (especially in Live) and Asia stabilises, while buybacks continue without eroding margin guidance.
HOLD: the UK settlement removes a key risk premium and Q2 confirms stable margins and earnings, but reported revenue is still soft and Asia remains volatile, so it makes sense to wait for clearer evidence of re-accelerating growth before adding.
Market sentiment
6/10
↑
Trend: Improving
Sentiment has improved as the UK overhang is largely cleared and the report confirms very high profitability, but investors remain split due to weak reported growth and Asia volatility.
Risk assessment
8/10
Dilution:
Low
Strong FCF and net cash; buyback history
Jurisdiction:
Medium
Exposure to grey markets, especially Asia
Execution:
Medium
Piracy/cyber and maturity require adaptation
Recent changes
- Q2 2026 reported net revenue of 517.8 MEUR (-1.2% YoY) and an EBITDA margin of 65.9%. RNG (incl. NetEnt) reportedly grew double-digit and the UKGC matter was closed via a settlement (GBP 4.75m).
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Show all changes (10) — follow the company freeAbout the company
Evolution AB (publ) is a B2B provider of live casino and RNG games (slots, etc.) to global gaming operators. The company is highly profitable with strong margins and net cash, but faces headwinds from maturing growth, regulation, and Asia-related issues (piracy/cyber).
Sector:
IGaming technology (live casino and RNG games)
Type:
Tech
Next report
23 Oct 2026
Q3
Catalysts
13 Aug 2026
Interim report Jan–Sep 2026 (Q3)
Low
23 Oct 2026
Outcome of the Galaxy Gaming transaction
High
23 Oct 2026
Q3 2026 results
High
Horizon:
Bull case
Lower UK regulatory uncertainty, persistently very high EBITDA margins and aggressive buybacks could reduce the risk premium and re-rate the stock if growth stabilises.
Bear case
Weak reported revenue growth and continued Asia volatility tied to cyber/piracy issues could cap the multiple and keep the share price volatile.
Signal rationale (informational)
HOLD: the UK settlement removes a key risk premium and Q2 confirms stable margins and earnings, but reported revenue is still soft and Asia remains volatile, so it makes sense to wait for clearer evidence of re-accelerating growth before adding.
Recent news
- Evolution reported Q2 2026 with net revenue of EUR 517.8m (–1.2% YoY, +0.9% QoQ) and EBITDA of EUR 341.0m (65.9% margin) with EPS of EUR 1.27. The company also reached a £4.75m settlement with the UK Gambling Commission, closing the licence review initiated in Dec 2024, and continued share buybacks (just over 1.0m shares during 29 Jun–3 Jul; ~6.7m shares repurchased in the programme per updates).
Price & valuation
Last close
SEK 740
1 week
+1.0 %
3 months
+15.6 %
12 months
-16.4 %
From 52w high
-16.4 %
From 52w low
+43.5 %
Exchange
Stockholm
Type
Technology
Sector
IGaming technology (live casino and RNG games)
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Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.