Tesla TSLA
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Updated: 19 Sep 2026
Base analysis: 26 Aug 2026
The news check keeps the assessment current.
General analysis — not personal advice.
The founder owns or has owned shares in this company within the past 6 months. See About.
HOLD
Partly clear
Existing position can be maintained pending clearer evidence from the Cybercab event and Q3 report.
Profitability and a strong cash position are balanced against high capex, margin pressure and unfulfilled robotaxi promises, supporting the hold signal.
Market sentiment
Positive ↑
Trend: Improving
The market remains split between optimism around robotaxi and AI and concerns over weak margins and cash flow.
Risk assessment
High
Dilution:
Low
Strong cash position and stable share count
Jurisdiction:
Medium
Significant exposure to China
Execution:
High
History of delays in autonomy and robotics
HOLD is the call. Positive is the market mood. High risk means a lot can go wrong.
Latest change
- 26 Aug 2026 — ▲ The update reflects new balance sheet data showing higher liquidity than previously assessed.
The full analysis is open. Follow the company free for the full change history — and email next time the picture changes.
Show all changes (23) — follow the company freeAbout the company
Tesla manufactures electric vehicles, energy storage systems and develops software for autonomous driving and robotaxi services. The company is in a capital-intensive phase focused on AI, robotics and energy expansion. Operations are profitable but margins are pressured by heavy investments.
Sector:
EV Manufacturing
Type:
Tech
Next report (Q3)
21 Oct 2026
Catalysts
24 Sep 2026
Semi factory opening
High
1 Oct 2026
Roadster reveal
High
Bull case
The Cybercab event and Semi production ramp could generate positive momentum and reinforce expectations for robotaxi revenue.
Bear case
High capex and declining gross margins risk weakening cash flow and creating disappointment if promises are not met.
Sensitivity analysis
| Factor | If it weakens | If it strengthens |
|---|---|---|
| Robotaxi/FSD adoption | Delays in regulatory approvals → revenue model remains hardware-driven longer than expected. | Faster approvals and rollout → higher margins from software and subscriptions. |
| EV sales and margins | Continued price pressure and competition → lower gross margins and negative free cash flow. | Stabilized prices and higher volumes → improved cash flow and stronger profitability. |
Why this signal
Profitability and a strong cash position are balanced against high capex, margin pressure and unfulfilled robotaxi promises, supporting the hold signal.
Recent news
- NHTSA has escalated the Cybercab investigation with a special order requiring a response by 30 September. Tesla announced a Roadster reveal on 1 October at the SpaceX facility in Texas. The Nevada Semi factory opens on 24 September and a new FSD update has been deployed.
Key figures
Revenue
Q2 2026
USD 28.2B
Revenue TTM
TTM
USD 100B
EBITDA
Q3 2025
USD 3.8B
Net income
Q2 2026
USD 1.1B
Cash
Q2 2026
USD 43.5B
Total debt
Q2 2026
USD 9.1B
Gross margin
Q2 2026
16.8%
Shares outstanding
Q2 2026
3.9B
EPS
Q2 2026
USD 0.28
Exchange
NASDAQ
Type
Technology
Sector
EV Manufacturing
Firelda provides general information and analysis, not personal investment advice. Content does not consider your financial situation or goals. Investments can rise and fall in value. Always do your own research.